Every read BearingA has registered against active compound configurations, timestamped before the outcome window closes, drilled to primary source, revisited when the outcome resolves.
What sits in the record
Each entry names the signal it read, the read it composed, the implications at the reader's seat, and the outcome window it registered against, before that window closed. Every load-bearing claim drills to primary source. Nothing is edited after the fact; revisions are annotated in place with dated timestamps.
Every read is timestamped before the outcome window closes, drilled to primary source, and revisited when the outcome resolves. No entries retracted; revisions annotated in-place with dated timestamps. The record is the epistemic commitment; individual read accuracy is the empirical question the record answers over time.
10 of 10 entries shown
The deal signed, lasted three weeks, and collapsed. What that tells you about the forward paths is more useful than the deal itself was.
Path B is currently the higher-probability path. The Saudi Red Sea pivot is running at nameplate. Ras Laffan is offline through 2028. 2026 was the year the baseline changed.
Hormuz Day 195+ · Iran toll regime legislated · Gulf security realignment · Israel-Iran and Turkey adjacent
MCP-accessibleThe peace deal is the wrong variable to watch.
Oil pulled back from $126 to $97 in late May when the deal looked imminent.
Cross-sector customer absorption · Iran-US shaky deal
MCP-accessibleThree named compounds. One configuration. Day 0.
Xi placed Taiwan at the centre of the 14 May summit, 'the most important issue' in China-US relations, with the unusual sharpness that 'Taiwan indep…
Iran × Russia × Taipei alignment-first protocol
MCP-accessibleIMF April: 3.1% global growth. Q3 forecasts that have not rebaselined are running on the January reference.
Global GDP forecast 0.9% for 2026, down 0.5pp from January WEO (3.3%).
Post-Hormuz macro revision
MCP-accessibleThe survey closed March 13. The decisions taken inside the gap are now operating baseline.
57% of 415 CEOs, representing 10% of global market cap, named macro as their top threat.
Pre-blockade board decision baseline
MCP-accessibleG20 inflation 4.0% for 2026 is in the baseline. The May energy retracement does not unwind it.
Enterprise CPL rises 15-25% in the first two quarters of inflation compression, before pipeline visibility degrades.
Inflation compression via B2B demand
MCP-accessibleECB held at 2.00% on 30 April. The hike thesis did not materialise. The absorbed inflation did.
The ECB decision is in 6 days.
ECB rate decision · absorbed inflation
MCP-accessibleTTF at €48.8. Ras Laffan's 17% capacity damage runs 3-5 years. The 2027 planting window is still open.
The 2027 planting season procurement window is open.
Fertiliser feedstock cascade · 2027 planting window
MCP-accessibleIEEPA ruled out. Section 122 partial. The supply chain repositioning is already absorbed.
This is not the Hormuz story.
US-China structural decoupling · absorbed baseline
MCP-accessibleThe 2022 hedge expired into the cascade peak. TTF at €48.8. Ras Laffan's damaged capacity is offline for 3-5 years.
BASF curtailed Ludwigshafen in 2022 for the first time since 1865.
TTF contract expiry cascade · permanent supply reduction
MCP-accessibleAftermath transition. The booth is being negotiated, not closed. The cascade matured.
MoU signed 17 June.
Hormuz cascade · aftermath transition
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Subscribe to Signal Watch →The full articulation
For what Signal Watch demonstrates, the substrate, the moat, the burden-of-proof flip, see the category paper.
Reading position against active compound configuration →What the record proves
Ten dated situations where the read existed before the outcome arrived, each carrying the ratio between what the read costs and what deciding without it cost.
The proof points →The running record →