BearingA presents

Russia · Ukraine

the compound underneath the war

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I

It does not pause.

Attrition, sustained · the operating environment everything else transmits through

·

Every number had boots.

A rescue worker, killed on the call · Kharkiv region emergency service

Readout · casualties · 2014 — 2026

1,200,000

military casualties, combined — and the curve has not flattened

Russian military1.0–1.2M

Ukrainian military400–600K

Ukrainian civilians · OHCHR verified62,716

II

It did not begin in 2022.

Revolution of Dignity · Crimea · the Donbas they called frozen — twelve years, not four

III

Night after night.

The aerial tempo that every European industrial chain now operates against

·

One night, one country.

Air-target tracks over Ukraine, 14–15 June 2026 · ППО Radar × monitoring

Readout · Russian drone launches · per year

20222023202420252026

147,000capacity-implied launches in 2026 · the curve has steepened across four consecutive years

IV

$7B

Operation Spiderweb · Ukrainian SBU estimate · 1 June 2025 — at a unit cost in the thousands

Readout · unit cost · attack vs defense

~$4Ma PAC-3 MSE interceptor · DoD FY24 procurement · the system being outpriced

answers a drone that can also be met by

~$1,500a Ukrainian interceptor drone · Wild Hornets Sting · Brave1 portfolio pricing

~2,500× — the unit-cost gap that inverted the economics of the war

V

Inside books that never saw a front line.

Energy · credit · capital · policy — the war does not stay where the map puts it

We have read it whole

One configuration. Six altitudes.

Not coverage, substrate. Fourteen cascade chains, dated to outcome and drilled to source. The film ends here; the work begins.

BearingA · Sang Heeringa · indexed continuously since March 2024