Hormuz Compound
Geopolitical pressure on the Strait of Hormuz transmitting through energy prices into sovereign spreads, corporate credit, and EUR-correlated trading books.
BearingA
The configuration is already moving your book.
The question is what it means at your specific position.
Engine · Active
Corpus · Since March 2024
Bearing reads what compound configurations are transmitting through your named positions — the mechanism, the direction, the historical precedent. Every claim drillable to source. Calibrated to the window that's open, not the one that closed. Not a forecast. A read your board can challenge.
Your portfolio, your sector, your business — all of them running inside compound configurations transmitting at a speed the analytical infrastructure most institutions rely on was not built to read. The 2026 ECB thematic stress test names this directly for banks. The reinsurer, the corporate treasurer, the allocator, the hedge fund PM feel the same structural pressure from a different angle.
Bloomberg sells data. FactSet sells analytics. Risk platforms sell exposure. None sells the substrate — the standing measurement infrastructure that reads where your named position stands against the active configurations, in the language your diligence team operates in, with the cannot-be-wrong commitment enforced as a structural property of the engine. That is the category Bearing operates in. The category did not exist in productised form before Bearing was built.
Source
141
primary sources · every compound disruption since 1973
Cannot-be-wrong
100%
mechanism-operation accuracy · 90%+ target · built into construction
Empirical floor
−0.755
classified before the window · position predicted direction
00 /
Thesis
Not a research service. Not a data provider.Not a risk platform.One engine. One invariant move.
BearingA built Bearing. Underneath every deployment, Bearing performs one invariant move: read the structural position against the active named compound configurations, surface the directional outcome at that altitude, ground it in the cascade transmission mechanism and the resolved historical precedent. Every position. Every substrate. Every read.
01 /
How it works
Cycle · Hormuz
Day 86 of cycle
Configuration · Active
A named compound configuration becomes readable.
Hormuz — military escalation risk, oil transit dependency, petrochemical feedstock exposure, regional banking stress. Four compound factors, each named, each with a transmission path that runs through specific sectors, specific positions, specific names in a portfolio.
Bearing maps that path sector by sector, position by position. Not which sectors are exposed in general — which positions within each sector are exposed, in which direction, through which mechanism. The mapping runs against 141 primary sources calibrated to every compound disruption since 1973. Every step in the chain grounded. Every claim drillable to source.
90%+
Mechanism-operation accuracy — the commitment
Currently running at 100% · 12 + 25 + 8 measured
Currently running at 100% · 12 + 25 + 8 measured
The engine holds itself to one commitment: every cascade must transmit as named, or the read is wrong. That standard is structural — built into construction, not checked after the fact. The engine is currently running at 100%.
Here is what the engine produced on the Hormuz cycle
Before the window opened, Bearing classified 240 companies by severity tier — not by sector, by position within sector. How directly the transmission path runs through each name. The classification was published. Then the window opened.
Twenty-five publicly-traded names tracked across 22 trading days. One question: did position predict direction?
Banks holding energy-corporate credit at NIM-beneficiary positions. Chemicals companies whose feedstock routes run through the Strait at compression positions. Same configuration. Opposite transmission mechanisms. Opposite expected directions.
The correlation between position-tier and observed price direction across those 25 names, across those 22 days:
−0.755
Banks ↔ Chemicals · Pearson correlation · 22 trading days
r · Pearson · 22 trading days · Hormuz Day 0 → Day 67
A correlation of −1 means perfect inverse movement between position clusters. Zero means position predicted nothing. −0.755 means position predicted direction strongly — across five institutional clusters, across 22 trading days, in a live market under a live compound event.
Position-determines-direction, measured.
That is what 90%+ mechanism-operation accuracy looks like when the window closes.
02 /
Tracking
Configurations
Bearing tracks
Sovereign–Bank Nexus
Sovereign credit stress feeding back into domestic banking sectors through the diabolic loop — bank capital absorbs sovereign mark, lending capacity contracts, sovereign refinancing pressure builds.
Energy Infrastructure
Physical and regulatory pressure on European energy infrastructure transmitting through supply chains, input costs, and the embedded feedstock exposure of industrial and chemical positions.
Iran–Russia–Taiwan
Cross-compound geopolitical configuration reading three simultaneous pressure points — each with independent transmission pathways that compose against the same institutional position.
European Credit Cascade
Credit spread widening transmitting through European corporate and sovereign positions as the compound configuration's mechanism runs through both the customer cascade and the market microstructure cascade.
Climate Concentration
Climate-correlated concentration risk transmitting through reinsurance books, agricultural operating positions, and the insurance liabilities of climate-exposed counterparties.
[1/6]
03 /
Gate
The configuration doesn't stop at your portfolio. Here is where it reaches your business.
01/
Active
Your stress test doesn't model compound geopolitical configurations. Your regulator is starting to ask.
Banks under SSM, FINMA, and equivalent supervision facing the 2026 ECB thematic stress test. The configuration running now is exactly the class of event the stress test was designed to capture — and the scenario library doesn't include it. Bearing produces the scenario in the supervisor's grammar.
Open→
02/
Active
The configuration is inside your portfolio. Bearing reads which names, in which direction, through which mechanism.
Institutional readers with a named portfolio and no specific regulatory framing. The active configuration is transmitting through your positions right now — the question is which names are exposed, in which direction, and what the resolved historical precedent says about where positions like yours land.
Open→
03/
Active
The configuration changes the value of what you're about to buy. Bearing reads the exposure before you commit.
VC and PE investment partners, allocators, and corporate development teams evaluating a named target. Six compound configurations read across the hold horizon at IC-pack grade. The structural exposure your diligence framework doesn't natively surface — before the capital moves.
Open→
04/
Active
Your hedge covers the input cost symmetrically. The configuration creates asymmetric exposure your hedge doesn't reach.
CFOs and COOs at carriers, manufacturers, and operators. The same configuration that moves your input cost also moves your customer base — in a different direction, through a different mechanism. The COGS hedge doesn't cover the customer-side cascade. Bearing reads what your hedge structurally misses.
Open→
05/
Active
Your cat model has a calibration window. Compound configurations operate outside it.
CUOs and CROs at reinsurance institutions. The cat model performs at the accuracy its training substrate validated against — which means the compound configuration running now, outside the calibration window, is the exposure the model architecturally cannot price. Bearing reads against the longer instrumental record and resolved precedents.
Open→
06/
Active
Your model accuracy degrades when the configuration shifts regime. Bearing reads the shift before it moves the market.
CIOs, CROs, and heads of research at systematic CTAs and multistrategy quant platforms. The model performs at the accuracy its training substrate validated against — which means regime shifts are the failure mode. Bearing delivers structured configuration substrate the model architecture consumes to extend accuracy into the regime the training data doesn't cover.
Open→04 / Engine surface preview
Position-determines-direction. Measured.
The cascade propagation index renders the methodology's central claim as a measured artifact. Five institutional position clusters against the Hormuz Day 0 → Day 67 window. The correlations are empirical, derived from a Kalman state layer running per the canonical architecture. This is what Bearing produces continuously against every active configuration.
Cascade propagation index
5 × 5 clusters n = 22 trading days
5 × 5 clusters n = 22 trading days
Reading
Each cell shows the empirical correlation between two position clusters across the Hormuz cycle window. Diagonal cells are self-correlation by definition.
Same compound, same direction reads as strong positive. Opposite positions read as strong negative. Structurally decoupled clusters read as neutral.
Strong + (≥ +0.5)
Moderate +
Neutral (|r| ≤ 0.3)
Moderate −
Strong − (≤ −0.5)
05 /Architectural surfaces
26 May 2026
The Engine
Bearing — the deployed product running continuously against a named institutional position.
/bearing →The Method
The Predictive History Method, built since March 2024. Surfaced for the technical buyer.
/method →The Company
BearingA — institutional research practice. Contracts, invoices, owns the methodology.
/about →The Record
/record — empirical defensibility substrate independently findable for diligence.
/record →
BearingA — Institutional research instrument. Operated by Predictive History Method. Principal: Sang Heeringa. EUIPO trademark pending.
26 May 2026 · v300 methodology · Hormuz cycle Day 86